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By Ben Farmer
Mali’s Russian-backed military junta has been tipped into crisis by a militant blockade of fuel supplies, highlighting its weak authority in the West African nation.
Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) has, over the past fortnight, torched scores of tankers as it attempts to lay economic siege to parts of southern and western Mali. The attempted stranglehold marks an escalation of the militants’ long campaign and comes as extensive Kremlin military backing has done little to halt the insurgency.
Mali, along with neighbouring Burkina Faso and Niger, has in recent years fallen to a military coup and pivoted towards Russia, away from former Western allies, particularly France. Russia sent hundreds of mercenaries from the infamous Wagner Group, and its successor the Africa Corps, but these forces have had limited effect in subduing the insurgency and have been accused of several atrocities.
As the situation has deteriorated this year, Mali and the United States have reportedly begun to ease their estrangement, with Washington starting to share intelligence and targeting information with Bamako.
JNIM has vowed to cut off the cities of Kayes and Nioro-du-Sahel and to block supply routes from neighbouring Senegal, which serves as a conduit for more than a third of Mali’s fuel. An intelligence assessment by the Critical Threats Project warned that JNIM’s economic warfare campaign “is a significant threat to the legitimacy and stability of the junta”.
“The campaign is a symbolic blow, given JNIM is brazenly challenging state forces in the most economically and politically sensitive areas, which had been largely immune from the group until recent years.”
Ambushes of large tanker convoys on 13 and 14 September reportedly destroyed at least 60 vehicles, with troop escorts fleeing on both occasions. Pictures shared on social media have shown long queues at petrol stations, and prices are reported to have doubled in some parts of the country.
JNIM has also broadened attacks on economic targets such as cement factories, sugar refineries, and mines, while kidnapping foreign workers.
The junta has attempted to downplay the effect of the blockade, describing it as a sign of the jihadists’ desperation. The junta leader, General Assimi Goïta, used a 22 September Independence Day speech to urge the population “not to give in to the disinformation of these lawless groups”.
“The recent cowardly attacks by armed terrorist groups against innocent civilians largely reflect their disarray in the face of the intensification of pressure from the armed forces on the ground,” he said.
Major General Abdoulaye Maïga, the prime minister, vowed to keep supplies flowing “even if we have to go and get our fuel on foot with spoons”.
The United States has reportedly offered counter-terrorism expertise to the junta as Washington seeks to reset relations. The Biden administration sanctioned Malian officials as the country turned to Moscow, but under Donald Trump Washington is reported to have again offered help as part of a drive to source critical minerals.
Rudolph Atallah, a security and counter-terrorism adviser to Mr Trump, visited Mali in July. State media quoted him saying: “We have the necessary equipment, the intelligence and the forces to stand up to this menace. If Mali decides to work with us, we’ll know what to do.”