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US defence chiefs believe China is expanding and modernising its weapons stockpile faster than any other nuclear-armed power, a draft Pentagon report highlighting Beijing’s growing military ambitions has revealed.
China has loaded more than 100 intercontinental ballistic missiles across its latest three silo fields and has no desire for arms control talks, according to the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, a Chicago-based non-profit.
Beijing has described reports of a military buildup as efforts to “smear and defame China and deliberately mislead the international community.”
Last month, US President Donald Trump said that he may be working on a plan to denuclearise with China and Russia.
But the draft Pentagon report, which was seen by Reuters, said Beijing did not appear to be interested.
“We continue to see no appetite from Beijing for pursuing such measures or more comprehensive arms control discussions,” the report said.
The report said that China had likely put in more than 100 solid-fuelled DF-31 ICBMs in silo fields close to China’s border with Mongolia — the latest in a series of silo sites.
The Pentagon had previously reported the existence of the fields but not the number of missiles loaded.
The Pentagon declined to comment.
China’s embassy in the US capital, Washington, said the communist country had “maintained a defensive nuclear strategy, kept its nuclear forces at the minimum level required for national security, and abided by its commitment to a moratorium on nuclear testing.”
The draft Pentagon report did not identify any potential target of the newly placed missiles. US officials noted that the report could change before it was sent to lawmakers.
The report said China’s nuclear warhead stockpile was still in the low 600s in 2024, which reflected “a slower rate of production when compared to previous years.”
But the report added that China’s nuclear expansion was ongoing and that it was on track to have over 1,000 warheads by 2030.
China has said it adheres to a “nuclear strategy of self-defence” and pursues a no-first-use policy.
Trump has said he wants the United States to resume nuclear weapons testing, but it is unclear what form that will take.
Former US President Joe Biden and Trump, during his first term, sought to engage China and Russia in negotiations on replacing New START with a three-way strategic nuclear arms control treaty.
The wide-ranging Pentagon report detailed China’s military buildup and said that “China expects to be able to fight and win a war on Taiwan by the end of 2027.”
China, which views democratically governed Taiwan as its own territory, has never renounced the use of force to “reunify” with the island.
Beijing was refining its military options to take Taiwan by “brute force,” the report said, adding that one option could include strikes 1,500–2,000 nautical miles from China.
“In sufficient volume, these strikes could seriously challenge and disrupt US presence in or around a conflict in the Asia-Pacific region,” it added.
The report comes less than two months before the expiration of the 2010 New START treaty, the last US-Russia nuclear arms control accord, which limits the sides to deploying 1,550 strategic nuclear warheads on 700 delivery systems.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Biden extended the pact for five years in February 2021, but its terms do not allow for a further formal extension.
Many experts fear that the expiration of the pact could fuel a three-way nuclear arms race.
“More nuclear weapons and an absence of diplomacy will not make anyone safer — neither China, Russia, nor the United States,” said Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association advocacy group.
Chinese President Xi Jinping has undertaken a broad corruption crackdown, with the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) being one of the main targets.
The report said the purge could impact short-term nuclear readiness but also set the stage for “long-term PLA improvements overall.”
Revenues at China’s giant military firms fell last year as corruption purges slowed arms contracts and procurement, according to a leading conflict think tank.
China’s weapons revenue fell despite three decades of rising defence budgets amid Beijing’s growing strategic rivalry with the United States, Asia’s traditional military power, and tensions over Taiwan and the hotly disputed South China Sea.
In the past 18 months, at least 26 current and former senior managers in state-owned arms companies have been investigated or removed from their positions, the Pentagon report said.
“Investigations have expanded from a 2023 focus on procurement in the rockets and missiles industry to most of China’s defence industry, including China’s nuclear and shipbuilding industries,” it added.