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By Ben Farmer
Ethiopia, Eritrea and Tigray are once again massing forces on the Horn of Africa, raising fears that one of the bloodiest African wars of recent years could resume.
Diplomats have warned that Ethiopian federal and Tigrayan troops have deployed in strength along the border of the country’s northern Tigray region.
The Tigray civil war is estimated to have killed around 600,000 people between 2020 and 2022, when Ethiopian troops, backed by local militias and the Eritrean army, fought rebels from the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF).
Ethiopia and Eritrea emerged victorious, but the peace deal has not been fully implemented and relations between the former allies have since deteriorated.
Addis Ababa’s vows to regain access to the Red Sea, after the country lost its coastline when Eritrea seceded three decades ago, have been widely interpreted as threats to seize Eritrea’s port of Assab.
Eritrea has moved closer to Tigray and is also reported to be mobilising troops near the Tigray region, adding to instability that could engulf the Horn of Africa.
“The [Ethiopian military] is encircling Tigray,” a Western source told AFP, adding that Tigrayan forces “are also deploying towards their borders”.
“Such large numbers of troops positioning themselves face to face is not a good sign,” the source said.
Volker Turk, the United Nations human rights commissioner, last week called for de-escalation “before it is too late”.
Regional spillover from the neighbouring war in Sudan has further inflamed the situation, according to a recent analysis by the Crisis Group think tank.
Ethiopia is close to the United Arab Emirates, which has been accused of supporting Sudan’s paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The UAE strongly denies providing support. Eritrea and Tigray are meanwhile said to be aligned with the Sudanese army.
Crisis Group said: “Until now, all sides nonetheless appear to have understood the appalling risks of outright war, which could cost many thousands of lives and set off an unpredictable chain reaction throughout the region.”
The think tank concluded: “While all sides appear wary of igniting a new war, simmering grievances, overblown rhetoric and military preparations indicate that they are readying themselves for that eventuality.”
If war were to break out, it could follow the pattern of the conflict in Sudan and become a proxy struggle, with regional powers such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Egypt jockeying for position.
Clashes did briefly erupt between Ethiopian and Tigrayan forces in late January, leading to the temporary suspension of flights to the region.
The war, which ended in 2022, unfolded under an almost complete media blackout and was among the deadliest conflicts in recent years.
Ethiopian forces initially advanced into Tigray before a TPLF counter-offensive pushed south towards Addis Ababa. That advance was repelled and a ceasefire was eventually agreed after two years of fighting.
The United States accused Ethiopia of ethnic cleansing and all sides were accused of committing atrocities.
Researchers have estimated that as many as 600,000 people died, either as a direct result of fighting, through starvation or because of the collapse of healthcare services.