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London shares rose as traders priced in an increased chance of US interest‑rate cuts this year, lifting the FTSE 100 close to record levels, even as weaker oil forecasts from the IEA and a profit warning at insurer Beazley weighed on energy and insurance stocks.
Markets nudged higher in London on Wednesday as traders priced in the growing likelihood of cuts to US interest rates later this year, a shift that helped push the FTSE 100 back towards record territory. Speaking to The Independent, Joshua Mahoney, an analyst at Rostro, said market pricing for rate cuts at the remaining 2025 Federal Reserve meetings had “tipped above the 50% mark”, arguing that the base case was now for policy to be “at least 75bp lower by year‑end”, a dynamic he said was creating a “Goldilocks scenario” for equities.
The technical readings reflected that optimism. The FTSE 100 closed up modestly at 9,165.23, with the mid‑cap FTSE 250 and the AIM All‑Share showing only small moves, while US markets also rose — the S&P 500 reached fresh highs — as the dollar weakened and bond yields eased after softer inflation data. Reuters commentary noted the same theme: softer US consumer price figures reduced safe‑haven demand, trimming 10‑year Treasury yields and lifting risk assets as investors adjusted expectations for Fed timing.
Energy markets were a clear drag on the London index. The International Energy Agency, in its August oil market report published in Paris, trimmed its forecast for 2025 oil demand growth to around 680,000 barrels per day, down from a previous estimate of 700,000 bpd, and highlighted ample global stocks and uneven demand across major economies. The IEA’s revision, together with higher OPEC+ production, helped push Brent lower and left heavyweight stocks such as Shell and BP under pressure during the session.
Analysts warned the weakness in oil could be persistent. Kathleen Brooks of XTB told The Independent the IEA now expects the “peak of the supply glut” to arrive at the end of 2026, a dynamic that could cap oil prices for some time. She also flagged geopolitical risks, noting that talks between world leaders could further change the supply picture — a point echoed in market commentary that diplomatic developments might either ease or exacerbate current gluts and so swing prices sharply.
Investors also punished insurance sector risk after a profit warning. Lloyd’s insurer Beazley slumped sharply on Wednesday after lowering its full‑year premium growth guidance to “low‑to‑mid single digits”, down from a previous mid‑single‑digits forecast; the firm said changing risk patterns, including those driven by new technology and climate trends, had reduced predictability. Reuters reported that Beazley stressed it still expected an undiscounted combined ratio in the mid‑80s and that management emphasised a disciplined underwriting approach, but analysts said the downgrade signalled cyclical caution and prompted heavy selling.
Housing stocks offered a more mixed picture. Persimmon reported solid first‑half results, with pre‑tax profit edging up and revenue improving, and the housebuilder reiterated an ambition to deliver around 12,000 homes in 2026. Yet Reuters analysis and broker commentary highlighted investor unease about margin pressures from elevated build costs and affordability headwinds, which help explain why the shares failed to rally strongly despite better‑than‑expected volumes.
Elsewhere, healthcare and consumer names led the risers on a broadly constructive session while miners and some consumer staples fell back; among the notable movers in London were large gains for Spirax, AstraZeneca, GSK and Unilever, and falls for Beazley, Fresnillo and tobacco and beverages stocks. The corporate calendar for Thursday pointed to further focus on insurers and miners, with half‑year results from Admiral, Aviva and Antofagasta due, while the global economic schedule includes UK and eurozone GDP updates and US PPI and jobless claims that could test the nascent optimism.
For now, markets are trading on a clearer path to easier US monetary policy, but commentators warn that that outlook remains sensitive to fresh data and to developments in oil and geopolitics. Industry data and the IEA’s own caveats underline that the demand picture is patchy and vulnerable to change; as Reuters noted, any stronger‑than‑expected inflation or a sudden geopolitical supply shock could quickly reverse the current Goldilocks narrative.
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Source: Noah Wire Services
Noah Fact Check Pro
The draft above was created using the information available at the time the story first
emerged. We’ve since applied our fact-checking process to the final narrative, based on the criteria listed
below. The results are intended to help you assess the credibility of the piece and highlight any areas that may
warrant further investigation.
Freshness check
Score:
8
Notes:
The narrative is current, published on August 13, 2025. Similar content has appeared in other reputable outlets, such as The Standard, which published a similar report on the same day. ([standard.co.uk](https://www.standard.co.uk/business/business-news/shell-persimmon-us-federal-reserve-goldilocks-trump-b1242829.html?utm_source=openai)) The report is based on a press release from the International Energy Agency (IEA), which typically warrants a high freshness score. No significant discrepancies in figures, dates, or quotes were found. The inclusion of updated data alongside older material is noted, but the update justifies a higher freshness score. No recycled content from more than 7 days earlier was identified.
Quotes check
Score:
9
Notes:
The direct quote from Joshua Mahoney, analyst at Rostro, appears to be original, with no identical matches found in earlier material. This suggests potentially original or exclusive content. No variations in quote wording were noted.
Source reliability
Score:
9
Notes:
The narrative originates from The Independent, a reputable UK news organisation. The IEA, cited within the report, is a credible source. No unverifiable entities or fabricated information were identified.
Plausability check
Score:
8
Notes:
The time-sensitive claims regarding the FTSE 100’s performance and the IEA’s oil demand forecast are consistent with recent online information. The ‘Goldilocks scenario’ for equities is a plausible market condition. The report lacks supporting detail from other reputable outlets, which is noted. The narrative includes specific factual anchors, such as names, institutions, and dates. The language and tone are consistent with UK financial reporting. No excessive or off-topic detail unrelated to the claim was noted. The tone is appropriately formal and resembles typical corporate or official language.
Overall assessment
Verdict (FAIL, OPEN, PASS): PASS
Confidence (LOW, MEDIUM, HIGH): HIGH
Summary:
The narrative is current and based on credible sources, with no significant issues identified in freshness, quotes, source reliability, or plausibility. The lack of supporting detail from other reputable outlets is noted but does not significantly impact the overall assessment.
