The UK government faces significant hurdles in fulfilling its education ambitions, with funding shortfalls, rising special educational needs costs, and persistent staffing shortages threatening to widen attainment gaps and hinder reforms.
The UK Government’s current education spending plans face significant challenges in meeting ambitious goals to close gaps in educational outcomes and effectively address the growing crisis in special educational needs and disabilities (SEND), according to a report by the Institute for Government (IfG). The report highlights that the Government’s budget falls short of its stated aims to break the correlation between a child’s background and their future success, with particular concern over unfocused strategies to tackle teacher shortages and SEND reform.
Amber Dellar, the author of the IfG report, emphasised that while the Government holds high ambitions for improving schools, its budget does not sufficiently support these objectives. With pupil numbers declining, especially in London, where primary school enrolment has dropped by 8.1% since 2018/19, funding based on per pupil allocation leaves many schools operating with decreasing budgets despite fixed costs for buildings and staffing. This results in money increasingly tied up in empty classrooms, with 23,000 primary school classrooms vacant across England, an unprecedented figure since records began in 2009/10.
A critical pressure point is the escalating demand for SEND provision. Education, Health, and Care Plans (EHCPs) have more than doubled over the past nine years, driving a near doubling of high needs spending to an estimated £12.9 billion by 2028/29, almost 93% higher than in 2012/13. Despite this surge, the report notes there is less funding available per pupil with special educational needs, and funds are being consumed by more costly interventions without necessarily improving outcomes. The Government has postponed its SEND reform plans until 2026 to enable further testing of proposals, which adds uncertainty to whether current financial commitments can bridge existing gaps.
Government commitments include a pledge to increase the number of teachers, promising 6,500 additional classroom teachers by the end of the Parliament to address workforce shortages, a problem acknowledged as one of the most critical facing schools in 2024/25. While early data show a modest rise in teacher numbers, the National Audit Office has raised concerns over whether this increase will be sufficient to meet current and future demands, especially given the wider issues in recruitment and retention.
Alongside challenges in school infrastructure and staffing, disparities in educational attainment persist. The IfG report points out that inequalities have worsened since the pandemic, with the GCSE attainment gap between London and England as a whole widening, further complicating the Government’s ambition to create equal opportunities for all pupils.
In response to growing pressures, the government has announced several significant investments in education and related services. A £850 million fund is set to create 60,000 additional SEND places, designed to provide tailored support to children with autism, learning difficulties, and mobility challenges, ensuring they receive education in high-quality, specialist environments. The government has also launched transformational reforms for SEND, including training thousands of workers for early support, opening 33 new special free schools, and streamlining the EHCP process through digital innovations to make it faster and simpler. These initiatives form part of a broader package with SEND funding increasing by over 50% compared to 2019-20, reaching more than £10 billion by 2023-24.
Mental health support in schools is also being expanded under the government’s Plan for Change, with nearly a million more pupils expected to access specialist support this year, reaching six in ten children nationwide. This initiative aims to combat the mental health crisis affecting young people and improve attendance and behaviour, ultimately supporting better educational outcomes.
Moreover, public health services are receiving a £200 million boost to enhance family and school nursing, sexual health clinics, and other community health initiatives, which underpin children’s wellbeing and readiness to learn. Beyond education, the Government has invested a record £29 billion into rebuilding the NHS, including mental health services and digital transformation, reflecting an integrated approach to supporting children’s health and education.
Despite these investment commitments, the Institute for Government warns that budget constraints, declining pupil numbers, and workforce shortages leave the Government with tough choices ahead. Mark Franks, director of welfare and economist at the Nuffield Foundation, underscores that financial pressures and staffing shortfalls could derail efforts to close attainment gaps for disadvantaged pupils, with limited scope within current spending plans to address these competing priorities effectively.
Official statements from the Department for Education acknowledge the magnitude of the challenge ahead, particularly with teacher shortages and SEND needs, yet affirm commitment to expanding resources and reform. The sustained effort to align educational ambitions with funding realities, however, remains a complex balancing act that will define the outcomes for many children in the coming years.
📌 Reference Map:
- [1] (Belfast Telegraph) – Paragraphs 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 11
- [4] (UK Government) – Paragraphs 4, 9, 10
- [7] (UK Government) – Paragraph 9, 10
- [3] (UK Government) – Paragraph 10
- [2] (UK Government) – Paragraph 10
- [5] (UK Government) – Paragraph 10
- [1], [7] (Belfast Telegraph, UK Government) – Paragraph 11
Source: Noah Wire Services
Noah Fact Check Pro
The draft above was created using the information available at the time the story first
emerged. We’ve since applied our fact-checking process to the final narrative, based on the criteria listed
below. The results are intended to help you assess the credibility of the piece and highlight any areas that may
warrant further investigation.
Freshness check
Score:
7
Notes:
The narrative presents recent data, including pupil number declines and SEND funding increases, indicating freshness. However, similar discussions on education spending have been reported in the past, such as the Institute for Fiscal Studies’ report in May 2025 ([educationbusinessuk.net](https://www.educationbusinessuk.net/news/28052025/government-faces-tough-decisions-education-spending?utm_source=openai)). The report’s focus on the Institute for Government’s findings suggests it may be based on a recent press release, which typically warrants a high freshness score. Nonetheless, the presence of similar content elsewhere indicates a moderate freshness score.
Quotes check
Score:
8
Notes:
The narrative includes direct quotes from Amber Dellar and Mark Franks. A search for these quotes reveals no exact matches in earlier publications, suggesting originality. However, the absence of online matches may also indicate exclusivity or limited dissemination.
Source reliability
Score:
9
Notes:
The narrative originates from the Belfast Telegraph, a reputable UK news outlet. The Institute for Government is a well-established think tank, enhancing the credibility of the information presented.
Plausability check
Score:
7
Notes:
The claims about declining pupil numbers and SEND funding increases align with recent reports from the Institute for Fiscal Studies ([educationbusinessuk.net](https://www.educationbusinessuk.net/news/28052025/government-faces-tough-decisions-education-spending?utm_source=openai)). The narrative’s tone and language are consistent with typical reporting on educational policy, suggesting plausibility. However, the lack of supporting detail from other reputable outlets and the absence of specific factual anchors in some sections raise questions about the narrative’s completeness and potential for synthetic content.
Overall assessment
Verdict (FAIL, OPEN, PASS): OPEN
Confidence (LOW, MEDIUM, HIGH): MEDIUM
Summary:
The narrative presents recent data and includes original quotes, indicating a moderate level of freshness and originality. The source is reputable, and the claims are plausible, with some alignment to recent reports. However, the presence of similar content elsewhere and the lack of supporting detail from other reputable outlets suggest the need for further verification.
