{"id":7848,"date":"2026-03-24T05:43:03","date_gmt":"2026-03-24T05:43:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sawahsolutions.com\/range\/iran-war-shows-the-strategic-limits-of-tactical-strikes\/"},"modified":"2026-03-24T05:43:03","modified_gmt":"2026-03-24T05:43:03","slug":"iran-war-shows-the-strategic-limits-of-tactical-strikes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sawahsolutions.com\/range\/iran-war-shows-the-strategic-limits-of-tactical-strikes\/","title":{"rendered":"Iran war shows the strategic limits of tactical strikes"},"content":{"rendered":"
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The war in Iran is testing the strategic limits of tactical military success. Even as\u00a0U.S. and Israeli airstrikes degrade Iranian capabilities,\u00a0a\u00a0complex web of global economic and strategic consequences are keeping\u00a0victory out of reach.\u00a0<\/p>\n

On Monday, U.S. Central Command\u00a0said\u00a0that more than 9,000 targets had been struck, including more than 140 Iranian vessels\u00a0damaged or destroyed in the war. Among them were mid-March\u00a0strikes on Kharg Island, which produces\u00a0most of Iran\u2019s oil exports. CENTCOM said only\u00a0military assets, including\u00a0missile and mine storage facilities, were hit on the island. However, other strikes hit Iranian oil and energy infrastructure.\u00a0Tehran retaliated by\u00a0attacking\u00a0oil facilities in Gulf countries, placing\u00a0continued pressure on oil prices. Iran has also\u00a0launched several cyberattacks, warning that major U.S. tech firms\u00a0could be targeted, which could disrupt\u00a0government networks, defense contractors and other civilian companies, and utilities.<\/p>\n

U.S. and Israel continue to target senior members of the Iranian regime, which\u00a0\u201cappears to be intact but largely degraded,\u201d\u00a0U.S. Director of National Intelligence\u00a0Tulsi Gabbard told senators on Wednesday. Last week, Israel\u2019s defense minister\u00a0announced the deaths\u00a0of Iran\u2019s top security official, Ali Larijani, and the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’\u00a0Basij militia, Gen. Gholam Reza Soleimani. Larijani is a particularly significant loss for Iran, as he was believed to be spearheading military operations since the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iran\u2019s intelligence minister, Esmail Khatib,\u00a0was also killed\u00a0on Wednesday, according to Israel.<\/p>\n

A contingent of Marines is also\u00a0on the way to the region\u2014reportedly, aboard USS Tripoli, an\u00a0America-class amphibious assault ship.\u00a0Tripoli can carry F-35B fighters, MV-22 Osprey tiltrotor aircraft, MH-60S helicopters, and around 2,200 Marines. The administration hasn\u2019t signaled how it plans to deploy the Marines.\u00a0Seizing Kharg Island\u00a0is one plausible mission for the Marines, albeit a risky one.<\/p>\n

As of Monday, the Pentagon said that about\u00a0200 U.S. service members have been wounded\u00a0in the war, and 13 have been killed, including the crew of a KC-135 tanker that crashed over western Iraq.<\/p>\n

Hormuz standoff<\/strong><\/p>\n

One of the biggest strategic challenges is the Strait of Hormuz, whose closure has bottled up roughly one-fifth of the world\u2019s crude oil. Iranian anti-ship missiles are the biggest threat.\u00a0Iran can also employ small fast attack craft and\u00a0unmanned surface vessels;\u00a0the\u00a0venerable A-10 Warthog\u00a0has been pressed into service against them. And mines remain a concern even thought much of Iran\u2019s minelaying capacity\u00a0has been wiped out.<\/p>\n

President Trump reportedly\u00a0expected Iran to capitulate\u00a0rather than block it, and his reactions to the closure have varied wildly. He\u00a0initially suggested that U.S. Navy ships could\u00a0escort commercial ships.\u00a0Then he\u00a0asked\u00a0allies for help, but was rebuffed. \u201cThis is not our war; we did not start it,\u201d said Germany\u2019s defense minister, Boris Pistorius, who favored a diplomatic solution. Trump turned to threats, saying that NATO would face a \u201cvery bad\u201d future if it didn’t help.\u00a0Then he\u00a0said in a Truth Social post\u00a0that \u201cwe no longer \u2018need,\u2019 or desire, the NATO Countries\u2019 assistance \u2014 WE NEVER DID!\u201d Then he amplified an\u00a0opinion piece\u00a0arguing that U.S. allies should help open the strait.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Still, a group of seven U.S. allies issued a\u00a0joint statement\u00a0Thursday indicating a willingness to contribute to reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The leaders of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom\u00a0condemned Iran\u2019s closure of the strait and highlighted the need for freedom of navigation. \u201cWe express our readiness to contribute to appropriate efforts to ensure safe passage through the Strait,\u201d the statement said. \u201cWe welcome the commitment of nations who are engaging in preparatory planning.\u201d The joint statement left the specifics of \u201cappropriate efforts\u201d deliberately vague.<\/p>\n

Escorting ships through the strait is a dangerous endeavor. Any ship transiting the strait is a potential target for Iranian missiles, airborne and maritime drones, and mines, meaning both civilian vessels and warships run the risk of being damaged or suffering casualties. Escort missions also carry a financial burden. In addition to the costs of an increased operational tempo, warships could end up further depleting interceptor inventories, as the U.S. Navy experienced while\u00a0defending ships in the Red Sea\u00a0from Houthi rebels.<\/p>\n

Regarding the mine threat, the U.S.\u00a0recently retired\u00a0its Bahrain-based Avenger class mine countermeasures ships, which featured wood and fiberglass hulls to facilitate demining operations. That job now falls to the Independence class Littoral Combat Ship, which is outfitted with\u00a0mine countermeasures equipment, including towed sonar, unmanned surface and underwater vehicles, and an airborne mine neutralization system carried by an MH-60S helicopter. However, two of the Navy\u2019s three LCS outfitted with minesweeping gear were\u00a0spotted in Malaysia\u00a0earlier this week, far from the war in Iran. Even if the ships return to the Middle East soon, conducting demining operations in the contested strait carries its own set of risks.<\/p>\n

Markets under pressure<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ongoing strikes against Iranian and regional oil infrastructure, combined with the lack of free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, continue to disrupt energy markets. My colleague, Derek Bisaccio,\u00a0recently addressed\u00a0how rising energy prices are impacting Washington\u2019s strategic approach to the war. He cited possible options like the U.S. releasing oil from the strategic reserves and even easing sanctions on Russian oil to help lower prices, even though doing so would give Moscow fresh resources to pour into its war in Ukraine. Both of those scenarios came to pass over the past week. Washington\u00a0released 172 million barrels\u00a0from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which will increase supply but puts pressure on dwindling reserves that were also utilized following the start of the war in Ukraine. It will take years to replenish these withdrawals, making this a longer-term security concern.<\/p>\n

The U.S. also followed through on\u00a0temporarily lifting sanctions\u00a0on Russian oil, but Washington didn\u2019t stop there. The U.S. has also temporarily eased sanctions on\u00a0Venezuelan oil, and on Thursday the administration announced it planned to\u00a0remove sanctions even on Iranian oil, highlighting the tug-of-war between increasing economic pressure on Iran and concern about rising gas prices at home. Notably, the recent joint statement released by the group of seven U.S. allies applauded Washington\u2019s release of oil from the strategic reserves and said the allies would \u201ctake other steps to stabilize energy markets.\u201d<\/p>\n

Additional resources<\/strong><\/p>\n

We are now in\u00a0the fourth week of a war that the White House originally said would last up to four to five weeks. The U.S. maintains there are still thousands of targets to hit, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said Thursday that the\u00a0\u201clargest strike package yet\u201d\u00a0is in the works. Every level of Iranian leadership also\u00a0remains a target. Tehran has shown no signs of conceding, despite the level of destruction, making the timeline of the war unclear. If the regime survives, it could still rebuild its missile and drone stockpiles and pose a continued threat. At the start of the war, Trump called on Iranians to revolt against the regime, which is a difficult task for an unarmed populace that has already faced deadly government crackdowns against dissent. The president later conceded that point, saying an Iranian revolution is\u00a0\u201ca very big hurdle.\u201d\u00a0The Trump administration has said it has\u00a0no plans to send ground troops\u00a0into Iran, while also refusing to rule out the possibility. A major ground incursion to topple the regime would take a significant amount of time and resources to stage and carry out, and it appears unlikely at this time. However, a narrower operation, such as trying to take Kharg Island, could be on the table. While speculative, this type of move would be intended to increase pressure on the regime, but it could have untold consequences on Iran\u2019s oil infrastructure, its civilian population, and global energy prices.<\/p>\n

The financial cost is another issue for Washington, as well as Israel and\u00a0Gulf nations. The Washington Post reported Wednesday that the White House would seek a\u00a0$200 billion supplemental\u00a0to help pay for the Iran war, an amount that far exceeds earlier\u00a0rumors of a $50 billion\u00a0war request. Hegseth indicated the $200 billion number isn\u2019t final and could be adjusted. It\u2019s possible the supplemental could include items beyond the immediate cost of the war, but passage through Congress is\u00a0far from guaranteed. \u00a0The supplemental comes at a time when Trump has promised a $1.5 trillion defense budget, which would represent an increase of more than 50 percent above FY26 spending levels.<\/p>\n

Taken together, the past week\u2019s developments highlight a conflict that is tactically successful in degrading Iranian capabilities but strategically uncertain, with no clear off-ramp and mounting risks for both regional stability and U.S. interests.\n\n<\/svg><\/p>\n<\/div>\n