{"id":6523,"date":"2026-03-03T17:18:27","date_gmt":"2026-03-03T17:18:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sawahsolutions.com\/range\/the-d-brief-iran-war-spreads-across-mideast-trump-wars-can-be-fought-forever-iranian-us-death-tolls-rise-state-urges-evacuations-from-16-nations-and-a-bit-more\/"},"modified":"2026-03-03T17:18:27","modified_gmt":"2026-03-03T17:18:27","slug":"the-d-brief-iran-war-spreads-across-mideast-trump-wars-can-be-fought-forever-iranian-us-death-tolls-rise-state-urges-evacuations-from-16-nations-and-a-bit-more","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sawahsolutions.com\/range\/the-d-brief-iran-war-spreads-across-mideast-trump-wars-can-be-fought-forever-iranian-us-death-tolls-rise-state-urges-evacuations-from-16-nations-and-a-bit-more\/","title":{"rendered":"The D Brief: Iran war spreads across Mideast; Trump: \u2018Wars can be fought forever\u2019; Iranian, US death tolls rise; State urges evacuations from 16 nations; And a bit more."},"content":{"rendered":"
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Amid airspace and airport <\/strong>closures<\/strong> throughout the Middle East, the U.S. is urging Americans to depart immediately<\/strong> from more than a dozen countries in the region as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Trump\u2019s war on Iran approaches its fifth day.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The U.S. military\u2019s death toll <\/em><\/strong>rose<\/em><\/strong> to six on Monday after a strike on a poorly-protected tactical operations center in Kuwait, <\/em><\/strong>as CBS News reported Tuesday. <\/em><\/strong>Two other Defense Department employees were injured in Bahrain following a drone strike on a hotel there, according to the Washington Post<\/em>.\u00a0<\/p>\n

And more than 780 people have been killed inside Iran<\/em><\/strong> since the U.S. and Israel launched their attack early Saturday, according to al-Jazeera reporting Tuesday. In an apparent effort to assert some leverage, Iran\u2019s military announced Monday it has closed the Strait of Hormuz and any vessel trying to pass through would be attacked. The closure has sent global oil and gas prices soaring, Reuters reported Tuesday morning. That includes an 11-cent spike across the U.S. overnight, according to AAA. Investors are increasingly worried the war could stoke inflation as global markets tumbled Tuesday, the New York Times<\/em> reports.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Israel sent more troops into Lebanon Tuesday after Hezbollah militants said they are ready for an open war.<\/em><\/strong> Relatedly, \u201cBeirut\u2019s southern suburbs were subjected to a series of strikes in the early afternoon Tuesday that came without warning, and the Israeli military later said it targeted Hezbollah officials,\u201d the Associated Press reports.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem announced Tuesday that it \u201cis not in a position\u202fat this time\u202fto evacuate<\/em><\/strong> or directly assist Americans in\u202fdeparting\u202fIsrael,\u201d according to an alert posted to social media. By contrast, the British, Germans, Chinese and Indians are all sending planes to evacuate their citizens from the region.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The State Department closed its embassies in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait<\/em><\/strong> Tuesday after Iranian drone attacks struck those facilities.<\/em><\/strong> \u201cWe feel abandoned,\u201d retired U.S. Army Maj. Gen. Randy Manner told CNN Monday amid the abrupt and unplanned evacuation advisories. The State Department is \u201cin survival mode, quite frankly, because as we know, the administration reduced their budgets by almost one half over the past year,\u201d he said. \u201cSo this is a difficult situation for people who are not used to being in a combat situation. And that, of course, is, quite frankly, probably 99% of the travelers that are here.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

After giving a <\/em><\/strong>variety of answers<\/em><\/strong> to nearly a half-dozen news outlets Sunday, Trump said Monday he won\u2019t rule out sending U.S. troops into Iran \u201cif necessary,\u201d<\/em><\/strong> he told the New York Post<\/em>. \u201cI don\u2019t have the yips with respect to boots on the ground. Like every president says, \u2018There will be no boots on the ground.\u2019 I don\u2019t say it. I say \u2018probably don\u2019t need them,\u2019 [or] \u2018if they were necessary,\u2019\u201d he said Monday ahead of an at-times mumbling appearance before reporters at the White House.\u00a0<\/p>\n

By the way: Only 12% of Americans favor sending U.S. ground troops into Iran,<\/em><\/strong> and 60% said they do not think Trump has a clear plan for handling the situation. Another 62% think he should get congressional approval for any further military action. That’s according to new survey results published Monday by CNN.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Update: Trump was allegedly \u201cdragged\u201d into Israel\u2019s war against Iran<\/em><\/strong> because he thought \u201che had no choice but to join a strike that Israel would launch\u2026since America would be dragged in anyway.\u201d That\u2019s according to the New York Times<\/em>, reporting Monday after Trump spoke with right-wing podcaster Tucker Carlson and following a congressional briefing from Secretary of State Marco Rubio and CIA Director John Ratcliffe just a few days before the war.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Rubio echoed that sentiment Monday,<\/em><\/strong> telling reporters, \u201cWe knew that if Iran was attacked, even by someone else, they would immediately come after us.\u201d<\/p>\n

Second opinion:<\/em><\/strong> \u201cThat’s not the definition of preemptive\u201d Beth Sanner, a former deputy director of National Intelligence told CNN\u2019s Jake Tapper on Monday. \u201cThis is all based on the idea that, number one, we can’t control Israel, and number two, our entire war with Iran is because of what Israel is doing. In other words, Israel is the tail wagging the dog.\u201d<\/p>\n

Thousands of Iranians attended a funeral procession Tuesday for 175 people killed<\/em><\/strong> in an airstrike Saturday on an elementary school in the southern town of Minab. It\u2019s still unclear who exactly targeted the school. The Times <\/em>has a bit more in video, here, and in reporting Sunday, here.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Coverage continues after the jump\u2026<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n

Welcome to this Tuesday edition of The D Brief,<\/strong> a newsletter focused on developments affecting the future of U.S. national security, brought to you by Ben Watson with Patrick Tucker. It\u2019s more important than ever to stay informed, so we\u2019d like to take a moment to thank you for reading. Share your tips and feedback here. And if you\u2019re not already subscribed, you can do that here. On this day in 1938, <\/em><\/strong>oil was discovered in Saudi Arabia.<\/p>\n

New: Trump alleges the U.S. has \u201ca virtually unlimited supply\u201d of munitions and \u201cWars can be fought \u2018forever,\u2019<\/strong> and very successfully, using just these supplies,\u201d he said last night, writing four minutes before midnight on social media.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Just one day prior,<\/em><\/strong> \u201cInside the Pentagon, and among some members of the Trump administration, there was deepening concern Sunday that the Iran conflict could spiral out of control,\u201d the Washington Post<\/em> reported.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Spin zone: The White House circulated talking points for Republicans on Monday,<\/em><\/strong> which advised telling the American public the U.S. military is conducting \u201cmajor combat operations\u201d against Iran\u2014as opposed to the U.S. actually being \u201cat war\u201d with Iran. Independent journalist Ken Klippenstein shared that document on social media, here.\u00a0<\/p>\n

In video: The U.S. military released at least three airstrike reels over the last 24 hours<\/em><\/strong> featuring airstrikes against Iranian people and military assets. Those include naval strikes, exposed missiles destroyed, and mobile missile-launchers attacked in U.S. strikes.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Ally watch: U.S. military aircraft departed Spain over the weekend<\/em><\/strong> after the government there refused the use of its military bases for the war against Iran. Reuters has more. On the other hand, the Brits reversed their position and opened their airbases to U.S. military use against Iran. The BBC has more on that.<\/p>\n

NATO chief Mark Rutte is working to keep Turkey close<\/em><\/strong> after Ankara\u2019s leader said he\u2019s trying to broker an agreement to cease the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran, Rutte said Monday on social media. Earlier Monday, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan called the attacks against Tehran a \u201cclear violation of \u200binternational law,\u201d and \u201cAs their neighbour and brother, we share the pain of the \u200bIranian people.\u201d Rutte later praised Trump in a brief appearance on Fox TV Monday.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Also on Fox TV Monday, Sen. Markwayne Mullin, R-Okla., <\/em><\/strong>told<\/em><\/strong> viewers, \u201cWar is ugly. It smells bad.<\/em><\/strong> If anybody has ever been there and been able to smell the war and taste it and fill it in your nostrils and hear it, it’s something that you’ll never forget.\u201d While Mullin is on the Armed Services Committee, he has never served in the military.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cFortunately, we have President Hegseth,\u201d<\/em><\/strong> the senator said, apparently confusing the defense secretary\u2019s title, and not once. \u201cPresident Hegseth has been there,\u201d Mullin assured viewers. He also later confused Iran with Iraq during a separate Fox Business appearance, suggesting the \u201cIraqi people\u201d should overthrow their government before he corrected himself.<\/p>\n

In missile-defense developments: Supply chains are exciting again.<\/strong> The Israeli military assessed that Iran had 2,500 ballistic missiles and was accelerating production, the Times of Israel reported on Sunday.\u00a0By Monday, Iran \u201chad fired at least 165 ballistic missiles, two cruise missiles, and 541 [one-way attack] drones at the UAE. Another 97 ballistic missiles and 283 OWA drones targeted Kuwait,\u201d according to public statements assembled by Derek Bisaccio of Forecast International.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The UAE is projected to exhaust its interceptor missile stock within one week<\/em><\/strong> at the current rate of fire, and Qatar within four days; both are urgently seeking additional military support from the United States and seeking drone and air defense capabilities from Italy, Bloomberg reported.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The U.S. is considering relocating Korea-based THAAD and Patriot batteries to the Middle East,<\/em><\/strong> the Chosun Daily reported Tuesday.<\/p>\n

Iran likely possesses a \u201clarger number of Shaheds\u201d than the 2,000 ballistic missiles <\/em><\/strong>it was estimated to have retained after last June\u2019s conflict with the U.S. and Israel, according to analysis by Bloomberg Economics defense lead Becca Wasser.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The U.S. produced only about 600 Patriot (PAC-3) missiles in 2025, <\/em><\/strong>according to Wasser, citing industry numbers. A Friday report by the Financial Times<\/em> said that the U.S. had fired 150 last June during the brief conflict between Israel and Iran. The report quotes Center for New American Security fellow Stacie Pettyjohn assessment that the U.S. could \u201ceasily\u201d spend \u201ca year\u2019s worth\u201d of munitions in just a few days.\u00a0And, at a cost of around $4 million a-piece, they are far costlier than Shahed-136 drones. Iran is limited in its ability to produce those and to secure parts. But Russia, should it decide to assist Iran, can produce 18,500 a year. Read more from our Saturday analysis.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Worth noting: <\/em><\/strong>The United States also has interceptor options beyond expensive PAC-3 systems, such as AGR-20 Advanced Precision Kill Weapon System, or APKWSs, which are easier and cheaper to produce. But they are not \u201cunlimited\u201d either.<\/p>\n

Related reading:<\/em><\/strong>\u00a0<\/p>\n

Around the world<\/span><\/h2>\n

Afghan and Pakistani forces clashed again Tuesday in what is now the fifth consecutive day of fighting<\/strong> between the two countries, AP reports from Islamabad. More than 40 locations were attacked along both the northern and southern portions of the nations\u2019 borders, Pakistani officials said. Both countries have claimed enormous casualties in the fighting, and each nation strongly disputes the other\u2019s public estimates. More, here.\u00a0<\/p>\n

In Africa, the U.S. just <\/strong>sanctioned<\/strong> the Rwandan military for allegedly violating a peace agreement in the Democratic Republic of Congo.<\/strong> That conflict is one of the 8 wars Trump has repeatedly and falsely claimed he\u2019s ended, as CNN pointed out following his recent State of the Union address.\u00a0<\/p>\n

In a new first, France said it will deploy nuclear-armed jets in allied nations across Europe,<\/strong> President Emmanuel Macron announced Monday. He called it \u201cforward deterrence,\u201d and said in a speech, \u201cTo be free, one needs to be feared.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

Background: <\/em><\/strong>\u201cThe speech primarily aimed to spell out how French nuclear weapons fit into Europe\u2019s larger security posture in the wake of new questions raised by the Russian invasion of Ukraine and recurring tensions with US President Donald Trump over Ukraine, Greenland and NATO,\u201d France24 reports.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Macron also vowed to increase France\u2019s nuclear arsenal, <\/em><\/strong>citing \u201ca period of geopolitical upheaval fraught with \u2060risk.\u201d AP reports \u201cIt will be the first time France increases its nuclear arsenal since at least 1992.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

The leaders of Germany and Poland welcomed the moves,<\/em><\/strong> with Warsaw\u2019s Prime Minister Donald Tusk writing on social media, \u201cWe are arming up together with our friends so that our enemies will never dare to attack us.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

Around the Pentagon<\/span><\/h2>\n

Update: DOD\u2019s \u201cvibes-based\u201d AI policy. <\/strong>OpenAI on Friday announced it had reached an agreement with the Pentagon involving \u201cmore guardrails than any previous agreement for classified AI deployments,\u201d including Anthropic\u2019s for using the company\u2019s AI models in classified environments.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The ongoing fight inside the Pentagon regarding frontier AI is mostly a \u201cfight about vibes and personalities masquerading as a policy dispute,\u201d<\/em><\/strong>\u00a0 Michael Horowitz, a former Defense Department official who worked on AI policy, told the Wall Street Journal<\/em> Monday.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Background:<\/em><\/strong> In its statement last week, OpenAI said its \u201cmulti-layered approach\u201d stipulates that \u201ccleared OpenAI personnel are in the loop,\u201d when it comes to the company\u2019s cloud-deployed AI tools. The company says that they are not deploying \u201cour models on edge devices\u201d where operators could use them for targeted strikes. \u201cAnd we have strong contractual protections. This is all in addition to the strong existing protections in U.S. law.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u00a0Additional reading:<\/em><\/strong>\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/div>\n