{"id":12071,"date":"2026-06-02T05:04:59","date_gmt":"2026-06-02T05:04:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sawahsolutions.com\/range\/thanks-largely-to-robots-ukraine-is-now-talking-about-winning-not-just-surviving\/"},"modified":"2026-06-02T05:04:59","modified_gmt":"2026-06-02T05:04:59","slug":"thanks-largely-to-robots-ukraine-is-now-talking-about-winning-not-just-surviving","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sawahsolutions.com\/range\/thanks-largely-to-robots-ukraine-is-now-talking-about-winning-not-just-surviving\/","title":{"rendered":"Thanks largely to robots, Ukraine is now talking about winning, not just surviving"},"content":{"rendered":"
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PRAGUE, Czech Republic<\/strong>\u2013A small but growing number of European officials and analysts are saying what four years ago was unthinkable: Ukraine isn\u2019t just surviving its grueling war with Russia, it is in some ways thriving and may even be on a path to victory.<\/p>\n

This isn\u2019t yet captured in headlines\u2014for example, about last weekend\u2019s barrage of Russian drones and missiles around Ukraine\u2014but in the details, like how some 90 percent were intercepted.<\/p>\n

Several long-term trends have shifted in Ukraine\u2019s favor, and the core reason is its fierce focus on AI and robotics.<\/p>\n

In the crucible of war, Ukraine has developed drones and ground robots that can hold territory\u2014even take it back. Some are fully controlled by humans, like supply robots and medical-evacuation vehicles. But an increasing number are controlled in at least some aspects by dozens of AI products, from guidance packages on aerial drones to decision aids at the highest levels. Take the TFL-1 module, which can enable a one-way drone to function autonomously after a human has selected its target, reducing its susceptibility to jamming and other defenses. Its manufacturer, a Ukrainian company called The Fourth Law, says TFL-1 makes a drone four times more likely to hit its target.<\/p>\n

Just as important as the tech are the new tactics. Given unusual latitude to experiment, Ukrainian fighters began to develop robot-forward infantry concepts, like combined-arms attacks by airborne and ground systems, \u201cmore than a year ago. Right now, we’re massively starting to implement this,\u201d said Davyd Aloian, deputy secretary of the National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine, the coordinating body on domestic and international security, in an interview.<\/p>\n

Ukraine and its partners are also steaming ahead on new concepts for highly autonomous defenses against Russian drones, combining ISR sensors and AI to detect and identify enemy drones in less time and with more certainty.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cAll of the systems are being linked with each other and with people\u201d to create a distributed network with interceptor drones at various locations to be activated when needed, Aloian said. \u201cOne day we will have only like 10 guys who are just going to be responsible for approving interception. And it will automatically go direct to the target.\u201d<\/p>\n

The human operators will be dispersed as well. \u201cEverything can be controlled from Kyiv, Lviv, from cities in other countries,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Ukraine\u2019s advantages go beyond weapons and tactics. It is more willing than Russia\u2014or even Kyiv\u2019s Western backers\u2014to rebuild its doctrine, acquisition, and resupply systems around autonomous warfare.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Countries that fail to follow suit risk disaster, one of Ukraine\u2019s top dronemakers warned attendees at the GLOBSEC conference here.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt’s not what happened to Ukraine\u201d\u2014meaning Russia\u2019s barrage of Shahed drones\u2014that \u201cshould scare us in Europe,\u201d said Swarmer CEO Serhii Kupriienko.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Instead, Kupriienko said, people should be scared by how quickly a middling military\u2014in this case, Ukraine\u2019s\u2014developed the ability to inflict precise, devastating, and long-range damage.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cWe are behind by literally 10 years or 20 years\u201d in some defense-technology areas, such as satellite imagery, Kupriienko said, and yet his country has climbed a capability curve that just two years ago seemed insurmountable. So could others, he said.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe answer is always AI solutions and integrating the AI into even the daily routine work within the bureaucracy,\u201d he said.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Ukraine has also developed a defense industry that can keep up with the Russian threat. Its success is reflected not only on the battlefield, but in the growing number of foreign investors who see potential in defense products developed in and with Ukraine.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe have evolved since 2022, the industry has and our defense has as well. Right now we are able to provide not only [large quantities of drone] assets but everything what is needed to build out the ecosystem,\u201d including parts and production, training, modification, etc. Aloian said.<\/p>\n

Strike drones FTW<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ukraine\u2019s strike drones, more than any other factor, have helped counter a key Russian advantage: a large population of economically desperate young men and a comparative willingness to discount the cost of their deaths. Vladimir Putin has drawn hundreds of thousands into service with upfront bonuses and insurance benefits, which has provided numerical superiority on Ukrainian battlefields along with \u201cconsiderable stimulus for the ailing Russian economy,\u201d writes expatriate economist Vladislav Inozemtsev, who calls the system \u201cdeathonomics.\u201d<\/p>\n

But human waves are ineffective if drones kill soldiers faster than they can be replaced at the front\u2014and that has become the case, analysts at the Institute for the Study of War wrote this week.<\/p>\n

\u201cUkraine’s successful mid-range and frontline drone strike campaigns are limiting Russia’s ability to transport personnel to the frontline and to supply and sustain frontline positions,\u201d they wrote.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Putin must now \u201cconvince an increasingly tired Russian populace not only to support a fifth year of war but also to accept involuntary mobilization for a war that has already cost Russia well over a million casualties.\u201d<\/p>\n

Ukraine\u2019s deep-strike capabilities have changed the game in other ways as well. Oil infrastructure deep in Russian territory is no longer safe, giving Kyiv leverage over Moscow\u2019s export revenues no matter what the White House does with sanctions relief. Even more humiliating, the drone threat forced Putin to hold his annual Victory Day parade this month without Soviet-esque ranks of tanks and missiles.<\/p>\n

\u201cBelieve us. We were in the occupation of the Soviet Union for 50 years, and we know how important\u201d the Victory Day parade is,\u201d Estonian foreign minister Margus Tsahkna told the GLOBSEC audience. \u201cFor the first time, Putin was not able to wage this parade. This is the facade actually collapsing. And Putin is losing face among the Russian people, not only among us.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cPutin thought that Ukraine was a question of five days. And, let’s be frank, we, too, we said, \u2018Five days, and then it’s finished,\u2019\u201d said Xavier Bettel, Luxembourg’s deputy prime minister. \u201cIn fact, the resilience of the Ukrainians was a big surprise for all of us.\u201d<\/p>\n

Changing fortunes<\/strong><\/p>\n

To understand how dramatically Ukraine\u2019s prospects have changed, consider that in March, then-ODNI director Tulsi Gabbard, testified that the U.S. intelligence community believed that Russia had the \u201cupper hand\u201d in the conflict.<\/p>\n

Now Ukrainian officials and other observers have begun to worry about a premature sense of victory among Ukraine\u2019s foreign backers. Kyiv still depends on aid and imported weapons. Last week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the government continues to be \u201cvery persistent\u201d in its efforts to secure advanced Patriot missiles from the United States. \u201cI believe [the U.S.] must act quicker,\u201d he told reporters during a visit to Sweden.<\/p>\n

Some European governments, however, are ever more eager to forge deeper ties with their continent\u2019s new defense leader\u2014not just for Ukraine\u2019s sake but for their own.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cIt means enlargement processes for the European Union, for NATO in the future,\u201d Estonia\u2019s Tsahkna said. It means security guarantees not only to Ukraine and for Ukraine, but the other way around, because actually Ukraine is the largest military power in Europe at the moment, and increasing as well its industrial base.\u201d<\/p>\n

As for the Ukrainian government, declaring victory will require more than the cessation of hostilities. The invading country must be left \u201cmuch weaker,\u201d so that it can\u2019t re-arm as it did after its 2014 invasion of Crimea, Aloian said.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf there’s going to be a ceasefire, there will be very harsh conditions and difficult negotiations for the taking off of the sanctions, and when it will be,\u201d he said. Otherwise, Russia will \u201crenew all of those processes [of military buildup] before the full-scale invasion.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cRight now, they’re aiming like about 30 percent of their economy for the defense industry,\u201d which is too much, he said.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Even the downfall of Putin, who has led Russia since the end of the 20th century, would be insufficient.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe change of the regime shouldn\u2019t just be only external. It should be also internal,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

If it happens, much of the credit will go to the makers and operators of Ukraine\u2019s drones.\n\n<\/svg><\/p>\n<\/div>\n