Critical Metals Face Divergent Paths as Supply Disruptions and Technology Shifts Reshape Markets

Tin prices have surged 17.7% year-over-year to approximately $34,626-34,993 per tonne by July 2025, driven by significant supply disruptions that have removed nearly 14% of global production capacity. The suspension of the Man Maw mine in Myanmar and ongoing conflicts affecting operations in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) have created a substantial supply deficit, supporting prices despite broader commodity market weakness.

The International Tin Association projects global demand growth of 2-3% annually through 2030, driven primarily by renewable energy infrastructure, electronics manufacturing, and emerging applications in advanced materials. This growth rate is expected to exceed likely supply additions from new mining projects, suggesting fundamental support for prices above $30,000 per tonne over the mid-term investment horizon.

“The supply disruptions in Myanmar and the DRC have created a perfect storm for tin markets,” notes a commodities analyst at a major investment bank. “With Indonesia also reducing exports by 33% in 2024 while domestic mine output dropped 28% due to quota restrictions, we’re seeing structural deficits that could persist for several years.”

Meanwhile, nickel markets face significant headwinds as prices have declined to around $15,200-15,300 per tonne. The metal is under pressure from substantial oversupply driven by Indonesian expansions and the rapid adoption of lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) batteries that eliminate nickel content entirely. Indonesia now controls 61% of global nickel output—exceeding OPEC’s oil dominance in 1973—creating a concentrated supply situation that introduces both price risks and potential for supply management.

The technological shift toward LFP battery chemistry has fundamentally reshaped demand patterns across the battery metals complex. This transition has reduced nickel and cobalt intensity by approximately one-third over four years while maintaining strong growth prospects for lithium and graphite. LFP batteries now represent the majority of new electric vehicle installations in China and are gaining market share globally due to cost advantages and improved safety characteristics.

“The battery chemistry evolution has completely changed the demand equation for nickel,” explains Dr. Helen Zhao, battery technology specialist at the Electric Vehicle Research Institute. “What was once projected to be the star of the battery metals complex has become oversupplied as manufacturers prioritize cost and supply chain stability over energy density advantages.”

In contrast to nickel’s challenges, carbon and graphite product manufacturing shows modest inflation at 1.8% year-over-year with the Producer Price Index reaching 242.15 in June 2025. This relative stability reflects balanced supply-demand fundamentals and graphite’s universal requirement across all lithium-ion battery chemistries, providing a natural hedge against the technology shifts affecting other battery metals.

Interestingly, the shift toward LFP batteries actually increases graphite intensity per unit of energy storage compared to nickel-rich chemistries, creating a more consistent demand trajectory. Emerging applications in advanced electronics, thermal management systems, and next-generation battery technologies suggest continued demand growth through the decade.

Supply chain vulnerabilities remain acute across all three metals, with geopolitical risks in key producing regions creating potential for significant price volatility through 2030. China dominates graphite processing and purification, controlling over 70% of global capacity for spherical graphite used in battery anodes. This dependency has prompted Western governments to prioritize domestic graphite processing capabilities, creating investment opportunities in alternative supply chains.

Companies positioned in the battery metals space are advancing projects at various stages of development. Rome Resources is executing an intensive resource drilling program at their Mont Agoma and Kalayi tin prospects in the DRC, with over 5,000 meters completed across 26 holes. The company received significant validation in June 2025 with the discovery of a substantial 40-meter tin zone, with maiden resource estimates expected by September 2025.

Canada Nickel has completed a comprehensive Bankable Feasibility Study for their Crawford Nickel Sulphide Project, demonstrating robust economics with an after-tax NPV of US$2.5-2.8 billion and a 41-year mine life. The project is advancing toward a construction decision by late 2025, with first production anticipated by the end of 2027.

“We’ve done very well through permitting,” notes Mark Selby, CEO of Canada Nickel. “There aren’t that many projects. And that’s the best part… Those of us who have great First Nation community support and infrastructure in place, those are the projects that can quickly get done.”

Environmental, social, and governance (ESG) considerations are increasingly influencing investment flows in the battery metals sector. Nickel mining in Indonesia and the Philippines has contributed to significant deforestation and water pollution, while cobalt mining in the DRC continues to raise human rights concerns. Companies with strong ESG credentials, such as Canada Nickel with their NetZero pathway and 89% lower greenhouse gas intensity targets, may command valuation premiums in an increasingly ESG-conscious investment environment.

Recycling is emerging as a significant demand offset for battery metals, particularly nickel and cobalt. Advanced recycling technologies are achieving recovery rates exceeding 95% for some metals. As the installed base of electric vehicles reaches end-of-life in the 2030s, recycled content could satisfy 20-30% of battery metals demand, potentially moderating price volatility and addressing supply security concerns.

As the energy transition continues to evolve, battery metals will remain critical components of the global decarbonization effort. However, the divergent paths of tin, nickel, and graphite highlight the importance of understanding the specific supply-demand dynamics and technological factors affecting each metal rather than viewing battery metals as a homogeneous investment category.