StanChart reaffirms $200k year-end projection for Bitcoin as US gov shutdown becomes tailwind

Standard Chartered’s head of digital assets research, Geoffrey Kendrick, reaffirmed his year-end Bitcoin (BTC) price target of $200,000 on Oct. 2.

According to Kendrick, fresh ETF inflows and the U.S. government shutdown could drive the crypto to further highs in the weeks ahead.

In a note to clients, Kendrick said Bitcoin is poised to break past its all-time high within days and could reach $135,000 in the coming weeks, a little later than his previous forecast.

Kendrick highlighted that net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs stand at nearly $50 billion, with three months still to go in the year.

Shutdown is a catalyst

Kendrick argued that the current shutdown carries more weight than the 2018–2019 episode, when Bitcoin showed little reaction.

He noted that this year, the asset has traded closely with “U.S. government risks,” reflected in Treasury term premiums, positioning it to benefit as political gridlock deepens.

Prediction market Polymarket indicates a 60% probability the shutdown will last 10 to 29 days, a duration Kendrick said would likely bolster Bitcoin prices throughout the period.

ETF flows and market conditions

While gold ETFs have recently outpaced Bitcoin ETF inflows, Kendrick predicted that the trend will soon reverse in favor of the digital asset. Inflows have been ramping up over the past week and are expected to continue.

According to Kendrick, the demand for Bitcoin ETFs, combined with the crypto’s increasing correlation with macroeconomic risk indicators, reinforces its role as a maturing financial asset.

He wrote:

“I would expect at least another $20 billion by year-end, a number which would make my $200,000 year-end forecast possible.”

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