Global carbon dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels are set to increase by around 1% this year, according to scientists. This rise poses a significant challenge to efforts to avoid the most severe impacts of climate change. The Global Carbon Budget report, released during the United Nations COP27 climate summit, highlights the gap between emission reduction promises and current actions. The report projects a total of 41 billion tonnes of CO2 emissions in 2022, with the majority coming from burning fossil fuels and land use changes such as deforestation. The increase in emissions this year is mainly fueled by higher oil use in transport, particularly in the aviation sector as economies reopen from COVID-19 lockdowns.
One of the driving factors behind the rise in emissions is the increased use of coal, as countries turned to this highly polluting fossil fuel following supply restrictions of gas from Russia to Europe after the invasion of Ukraine. Notably, emissions from China, the world’s largest emitter, decreased slightly, while emissions in the United States and India increased. The report underscores the urgency of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 43% by 2030 to limit global warming to 1.5C and mitigate the most severe impacts of climate change. While the COVID-19 pandemic caused a temporary drop in emissions in 2020, emissions have now surpassed levels seen before the pandemic.
The future trajectory of emissions remains uncertain due to various factors such as countries’ responses to the pandemic and the impacts of the Russian gas crisis. The report’s lead author, Pierre Friedlingstein, points out the complexity of predicting future emissions trends, stating that it is unclear whether China’s emissions will continue to decline in the long run or if Europe’s temporary return to coal use will be reversed in favor of clean energy. This uncertainty underscores the need for immediate and decisive action to transition to low-carbon energy sources and reduce reliance on fossil fuels.
As countries and stakeholders gather at the COP27 climate summit, the stark reality of rising carbon emissions serves as a stark reminder of the urgency of addressing the climate crisis. The disconnect between emission reduction commitments and current actions highlights the need for more ambitious and immediate measures to curb emissions and transition to a sustainable energy future. The report’s findings underscore the critical importance of global cooperation and leadership in combating climate change and achieving the goals set out in the Paris Agreement. Only through coordinated and concerted efforts can the world hope to avoid the most catastrophic impacts of climate change and safeguard the planet for future generations.
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