Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, recently discussed Bitcoin’s current state and future prospects in a thread on social media platform X. Known for his technical analysis and investment strategies, Edwards’ expertise covers various topics within the cryptocurrency space, including valuation metrics and macroeconomic conditions.
One of the points Edwards raised was the delay in Bitcoin reaching $100,000, despite significant institutional activity. He noted that US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs have acquired 200% of the Bitcoin mined since their launch, yet the price has only increased by 50% to $71,000. This slower growth than expected is attributed to various factors, including selling pressure from long-term holders.
Speaking of long-term holders, Edwards highlighted that their share of Bitcoin has decreased from 57% to 54% since December 2023. This decrease, equivalent to 630,000 Bitcoins being sold, creates selling pressure that counteracts new institutional investments, impacting the price increase.
Moreover, Edwards pointed out that the effects of the recent Bitcoin Halving event have not fully materialized. The event reduced Bitcoin’s daily issuance by 50%, leading to a supply squeeze as institutional investments take time to materialize fully. This delayed response could result in more significant price movements in the future.
In conclusion, Edwards outlined three key factors that could drive substantial price appreciation for Bitcoin: increased daily buying by ETFs, reduced selling by long-term holders, and growth in US liquidity. He expressed optimism that these factors would align over the coming months, potentially leading to more significant upward momentum for Bitcoin’s price. As of the current writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $71,027, showing a 69.13% increase since the start of the year.
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