UK retail slowdown before Black Friday as consumers remain cautious

Retail sales in the UK slowed noticeably in October amid rising consumer caution ahead of the budget and Black Friday, with shoppers delaying purchases and footfall declining in stores, hinting at a cautious festive season.

Retail sales growth in the UK slowed notably in October, marking the weakest increase since May, as consumer caution grew ahead of anticipated tax rises in the upcoming budget and shoppers delayed purchases to await Black Friday deals. According to data from the British Retail Consortium (BRC) and KPMG, overall retail sales rose by 1.6% year-on-year in October, down from 2.3% growth in September. This deceleration was most pronounced in food sales, which grew by 3.5%, a drop of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, while non-food sales remained virtually flat, increasing only 0.1%. The slowdown in non-food sectors was driven by declines in categories such as footwear, stationery, and appliances, influenced by milder weather and consumers holding off for Black Friday promotions later in November.

The BRC attributed the subdued sales partly to the “fragile consumer confidence” environment, with shoppers adopting a cautious approach to spending. Helen Dickinson, Chief Executive of the BRC, highlighted that many consumers delayed purchases, especially in toys, electronics, and clothing, waiting for the Black Friday discounts. She noted, however, that furniture and homeware saw relatively better performance as shoppers prepared their homes for festive gatherings. Dickinson also observed that food sales growth appeared largely driven by price increases rather than volume, reflecting ongoing inflationary pressures in grocery prices.

Further reinforcing the notion of cautious consumer behaviour, a separate report from Barclays found that about one-third of consumers postponed major purchases in October, waiting until after the budget announcement, which was scheduled just before the Black Friday shopping period. Barclays noted this marked the first time since August 2022 that all seven consumer and economic confidence measures it tracks had declined simultaneously. Confidence in household finances dropped sharply from 74% to 63%, with job security confidence and the ability to spend on non-essential items hitting their lowest levels since early 2023. Correspondingly, data on Barclays credit and debit card spending showed a 0.8% fall in October, closely mirroring September’s 0.7% decline. The decreases were particularly marked in supermarkets, department stores, and discount retailers, alongside significant drops in electronics, fuel, and motoring sectors.

Industry voices have expressed concern about the timing of the budget announcement, set days before Black Friday, which has become one of the UK’s largest shopping events. Retail leaders such as Argos and Sainsbury’s boss Simon Roberts warned that the budget’s tax and spending decisions could undermine consumer willingness to spend during this crucial period. Sarah Bradbury, Chief Executive of the grocery trade body IGD, echoed these concerns, explaining that shoppers were increasingly prioritising saving over quality amid economic uncertainties and narrowing gaps between pay growth and rising prices. She predicted continued caution among consumers as Christmas approaches, a time traditionally associated with more generous spending.

Complementing these findings, the BRC-Sensormatic footfall data revealed a broader decline in physical store visits ahead of the budget. UK footfall dropped by 1.8% year-on-year in September and by 1.1% in October, with High Street footfall seeing a sharper decline of 3.6% in October. This trend underscores the growing reluctance of consumers to venture into retail locations, a behaviour linked to subdued confidence and spending hesitancy.

Interestingly, despite economic caution, consumer interest in Black Friday remains robust. A KPMG Consumer Pulse survey found that 74% of shoppers planned to make purchases during Black Friday, with clothing emerging as the most sought-after category. More tech-savvy consumers, especially those aged 25-34, are increasingly expected to use AI-powered chatbots like ChatGPT and Gemini to find deals, suggesting that retailers will need to adapt their digital strategies to capture this evolving market.

In summary, UK retail spending entered a period of notable slowdown in October amid a complex mix of economic concerns and strategic consumer patience, with many holding back in anticipation of Black Friday deals and budget announcements. Retailers face the challenge of navigating this cautious sentiment while preparing for the critical year-end sales period.

📌 Reference Map:

• ^[1] (The Guardian) – Paragraphs 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
• ^[2] (The Guardian) – Paragraph 1
• ^[3] (BRC) – Paragraph 2
• ^[4] (BRC) – Paragraph 6
• ^[5] (KPMG) – Paragraph 7
• ^[6] (BRC) – Paragraph 6
• ^[7] (BRC) – Paragraph 6

Source: Noah Wire Services

Noah Fact Check Pro

The draft above was created using the information available at the time the story first
emerged. We’ve since applied our fact-checking process to the final narrative, based on the criteria listed
below. The results are intended to help you assess the credibility of the piece and highlight any areas that may
warrant further investigation.

Freshness check

Score:
10

Notes:
The narrative presents recent data from October 2025, with the earliest known publication date being 11 November 2025. The British Retail Consortium (BRC) and Barclays have released reports on 11 November 2025, aligning with the article’s content. The KPMG report on AI-enabled searching influencing Black Friday deals was published on 29 October 2025. No evidence of recycled or republished content was found. The inclusion of updated data justifies a high freshness score.

Quotes check

Score:
10

Notes:
Direct quotes from Helen Dickinson, Chief Executive of the BRC, and Sarah Bradbury, Chief Executive of the IGD, are present. These quotes appear in the BRC’s press releases dated 11 November 2025. No earlier usage of these quotes was found, indicating originality.

Source reliability

Score:
10

Notes:
The narrative originates from The Guardian, a reputable UK newspaper. The BRC and Barclays are established organisations with public records and legitimate websites. KPMG is a well-known professional services firm. All entities mentioned are verifiable and credible.

Plausability check

Score:
10

Notes:
The claims about UK retail sales growth slowing in October 2025 are corroborated by multiple reputable sources, including The Guardian, Reuters, and the BRC. The narrative includes specific figures and dates, enhancing credibility. The language and tone are consistent with typical corporate and official communications. No excessive or off-topic details are present.

Overall assessment

Verdict (FAIL, OPEN, PASS): PASS

Confidence (LOW, MEDIUM, HIGH): HIGH

Summary:
The narrative is fresh, original, and sourced from reputable organisations. All claims are plausible and supported by verifiable data. No signs of disinformation or recycled content were found.