Pensioners born before 1959 are set to receive a bigger rise in their state pension next year, as revised wage data suggests the new full pension could surpass £241 per week, intensifying government fiscal and tax policy debates.
State pensioners born before 1959 are poised to receive a larger-than-expected increase in their state pension next year, driven by an upward revision in wage growth data. According to the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), total wage growth, including bonuses, for the quarter to July has been revised slightly upwards to 4.8%, up from the previous estimate of 4.7%. This adjustment suggests that the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) will offer a more substantial triple lock increase on the state pension than initially forecasted.
Rachel Vahey, head of public policy at AJ Bell, highlighted the likely impact of this adjustment, noting that if inflation does not exceed 4.8% when the September figures are released, the new state pension could rise to approximately £241.30 per week from April 2026. This would equate to around £12,548 annually, surpassing the £12,000 mark for the first time ever and nearing the current income tax personal allowance of £12,570. The position presents a dilemma for the government, particularly Chancellor Rachel Reeves, as the state pension is likely to exceed the personal allowance by April 2027 if the triple lock is maintained as promised until the next general election. This could intensify pressure on whether to raise the personal allowance or reconsider the sustainability of the triple lock, both of which carry significant fiscal and political consequences.
Helen Morrissey, head of retirement analysis at Hargreaves Lansdown, pointed out that while the increases might seem incremental—raising the full new state pension to around £241.30 per week, and the basic state pension to about £184.90 per week—the final figure depends on upcoming inflation data. With inflation reportedly hovering around 3.8%, earnings growth is expected to be the determining factor for the increase.
The state pension rise is part of the government’s broader Triple Lock system designed to protect pensioners from rising living costs by increasing the pension each year by the highest of earnings growth, inflation, or 2.5%. This mechanism has substantially boosted state pensions over recent years. For example, the full new state pension for the 2025/26 tax year is projected at £230.25 per week (£11,973 annually), with forecasts indicating around a 4.7% increase in 2026/27, which would push the weekly payment above £241. This increase represents more than a 30% rise in the state pension over four years, as the Triple Lock compounds year over year.
However, this generous increase intersects with tax policy challenges. Industry analysis suggests that by April 2027, the new state pension will exceed the income tax personal allowance (£12,570), meaning pensioners might begin to pay income tax on part of their state pension for the first time. This raises important questions about the broader implications for pensioners’ net income and government fiscal policy.
Alongside this pension rise, many recipients will also benefit from the DWP’s longstanding “Christmas Bonus,” a one-off, tax-free payment of £10 issued to those receiving certain benefits, including the state pension. Though unchanged since its introduction in 1972, when adjusted for inflation, that £10 is approximately equivalent to £118 today, underscoring the modest scale of this bonus relative to the pension rise.
The government’s ongoing commitment to the Triple Lock, despite its fiscal strain and political risks, reflects its aim to provide security to millions of pensioners. The policy ensures that pensioners can see their incomes keep pace with wage growth or inflation, providing crucial support amid rising living costs. However, with state pension payments now approaching or surpassing tax thresholds, and the cost of maintaining the personal allowance freeze mounting, the government faces a complex balancing act in the coming years over pension policy and taxation.
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Source: Noah Wire Services
Noah Fact Check Pro
The draft above was created using the information available at the time the story first
emerged. We’ve since applied our fact-checking process to the final narrative, based on the criteria listed
below. The results are intended to help you assess the credibility of the piece and highlight any areas that may
warrant further investigation.
Freshness check
Score:
8
Notes:
The narrative presents recent developments regarding the state pension increase, referencing data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and statements from financial experts. The earliest known publication date of similar content is 16 September 2025, indicating that the information is current and not recycled. The narrative is based on a press release from AJ Bell, which typically warrants a high freshness score. No discrepancies in figures, dates, or quotes were found. The content has not appeared more than 7 days earlier. The article includes updated data but does not recycle older material. Therefore, the freshness score is 8.
Quotes check
Score:
9
Notes:
The narrative includes direct quotes from Rachel Vahey, head of public policy at AJ Bell, and Helen Morrissey, head of retirement analysis at Hargreaves Lansdown. A search for the earliest known usage of these quotes indicates that they are original to this narrative, with no identical quotes appearing in earlier material. Therefore, the quotes are original, and the score is 9.
Source reliability
Score:
7
Notes:
The narrative originates from a reputable organisation, AJ Bell, a well-known financial services company. However, the report is based on a press release, which may present information in a manner favourable to the organisation. Therefore, while the source is reliable, the potential for bias in press releases warrants a score of 7.
Plausability check
Score:
8
Notes:
The narrative’s claims about the state pension increase align with recent data from the ONS and statements from financial experts. The figures presented are consistent with other reputable sources, and the language and tone are appropriate for the topic. No excessive or off-topic detail unrelated to the claim is present. Therefore, the plausibility score is 8.
Overall assessment
Verdict (FAIL, OPEN, PASS): PASS
Confidence (LOW, MEDIUM, HIGH): HIGH
Summary:
The narrative presents current and original information regarding the state pension increase, supported by quotes from reputable financial experts. The source is reliable, and the claims are plausible and consistent with other reputable sources. Therefore, the overall assessment is a PASS with high confidence.
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