London and South East workers face steep rise in income tax due to threshold freeze

The government’s decision to freeze income tax thresholds is set to push nearly one million workers in London and the South East into higher tax brackets by 2028, sparking regional and political concerns over fairness and economic impact.

The decision to freeze income tax thresholds is expected to have a profound impact on workers in London and the South East, with hundreds of thousands likely to be pushed into higher tax brackets despite inflation and wage growth. This policy means that many earners below the £50,271 mark, traditionally considered middle-income earners, will find themselves paying the higher rate of income tax for the first time.

The freeze on thresholds has been under scrutiny particularly because of its regional implications. London and the South East now collectively contribute over £100 billion in income tax annually, reflecting their significant economic output. Projections indicate that by 2027/28, this policy will push nearly one million individuals in these regions into higher-rate tax bands, with some estimates suggesting that by 2028, over 900,000 additional taxpayers in London and the South East will be affected. Many of those caught are key public service workers such as police officers, teachers, and senior nurses, sectors critical to the region’s infrastructure.

This income tax policy is part of a broader fiscal strategy, described by some analysts as a “stealth tax,” which could result in over 3 million workers across the UK being shifted into higher income tax brackets by 2029. This is accompanied by projections that almost 4 million more people will start paying income tax altogether, indicating a significant increase in the tax base but also raising concerns about the financial strain on middle earners.

While some households in London may see a modest rise in disposable income, around £110 on average this year, attributable to recent National Insurance cuts, the long-term outlook is less favourable. Due to the continuation of the thresholds freeze and similar policies extending to National Insurance contributions, disposable incomes are forecasted to fall by approximately £1,580 annually by 2027/28 for London households, making this decline the sharpest across the UK.

The combination of inflation, wage growth, and frozen tax thresholds means that nearly 750,000 people in London and the South East could be dragged into the higher-rate tax band by 2025/26. This figure includes 370,000 Londoners and 380,000 residents of the wider South East area, further demonstrating how fiscal policies are disproportionately affecting these regions.

Highlighting the economic significance of London and its surrounding areas, revenue from affluent boroughs such as Kensington and Chelsea rivals entire regions like the North East of England, reinforcing their central role in the country’s tax contributions. Yet the growing tax burden on middle-income workers raises questions about the sustainability and fairness of relying on such fiscal mechanisms to raise government revenue.

With economic pressures mounting on households and essential workers facing higher tax rates, the political and social consequences of these tax policies are likely to remain a contentious issue, especially as the government prepares future budget statements and policy reviews.

📌 Reference Map:

• ^[1] (Evening Standard) – Paragraph 1, Paragraph 4, Paragraph 6
• ^[2] (Evening Standard) – Paragraph 2, Paragraph 6
• ^[3] (Evening Standard) – Paragraph 2, Paragraph 5
• ^[4] (KDW analysis) – Paragraph 3
• ^[5] (Evening Standard) – Paragraph 4
• ^[6] (Evening Standard) – Paragraph 6
• ^[7] (Evening Standard) – Paragraph 7

Source: Noah Wire Services

Noah Fact Check Pro

The draft above was created using the information available at the time the story first
emerged. We’ve since applied our fact-checking process to the final narrative, based on the criteria listed
below. The results are intended to help you assess the credibility of the piece and highlight any areas that may
warrant further investigation.

Freshness check

Score:
8

Notes:
The narrative discusses Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ recent decision to freeze income tax thresholds until 2030, a policy shift from her earlier plan to raise income tax. This development is reported in a Standard article dated November 15, 2025. The article also mentions potential new levies on high-value properties, including a possible ‘mansion tax’ or higher council tax bands for costly properties. These measures are expected to be announced in the upcoming Budget on November 26, 2025. The information appears to be current and original, with no evidence of recycled content. However, the article’s focus on potential property taxes may be speculative, as these measures have not yet been confirmed. Additionally, the article references a previous Standard article from April 24, 2024, discussing the impact of income tax threshold freezes on London and the South East, indicating that the topic has been covered before. ([standard.co.uk](https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/london-income-tax-bill-stealth-freeze-chancellor-south-east-b1153485.html?utm_source=openai))

Quotes check

Score:
9

Notes:
The article does not contain any direct quotes, which suggests that the information is paraphrased or original reporting. This absence of direct quotations may indicate a higher level of originality.

Source reliability

Score:
8

Notes:
The narrative originates from The Standard, a reputable UK newspaper known for its political reporting. The article is authored by Nicholas Cecil, the Political Editor, indicating a credible source. However, the article’s speculative nature regarding potential property taxes introduces some uncertainty.

Plausability check

Score:
7

Notes:
The article reports on Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ decision to freeze income tax thresholds until 2030, a policy shift from her earlier plan to raise income tax. It also discusses potential new levies on high-value properties, including a possible ‘mansion tax’ or higher council tax bands for costly properties. These measures are expected to be announced in the upcoming Budget on November 26, 2025. While the information aligns with recent political developments, the speculative nature of the potential property taxes and the reliance on a single source for these claims reduce the overall plausibility score.

Overall assessment

Verdict (FAIL, OPEN, PASS): OPEN

Confidence (LOW, MEDIUM, HIGH): MEDIUM

Summary:
The narrative provides current information on Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ decision to freeze income tax thresholds until 2030 and discusses potential new levies on high-value properties. While the source is reputable and the information is timely, the speculative nature of the potential property taxes and the absence of direct quotes introduce some uncertainty. Therefore, the overall assessment is ‘OPEN’ with a medium confidence level.