England faces record surplus of primary school places amid demographic shifts and funding pressures

A report reveals over 600,000 empty primary school spots across England, driven by falling birth rates and regional migration, straining budgets and highlighting systemic challenges in adapting to demographic changes.

The number of empty primary school places in England has reached a record high, with more than 600,000 unfilled spots in the 2023-24 academic year, equivalent to around 23,000 classrooms, according to a report by the Institute for Government (IfG). This represents 12 percent of the total 4.95 million primary school places available, and is nearly 34,000 more than the previous year. The think tank attributes this surge in unused capacity primarily to a falling birth rate following a decade-long baby boom between 2005 and 2015, which was notably influenced by births among mothers from abroad.

London stands out as the region most affected, with its primary schools experiencing an 8.1 percent drop in pupil numbers since 2018-19, a decline equivalent to about 2,060 classes. This trend has been accelerated by high housing and childcare costs prompting families to move out of the capital in search of more affordable options. Official figures note that 36 state primary schools in London have closed between 2019 and 2024. The decline is also manifesting in secondary education, where pupil numbers dropped by 0.8 percent in London in 2024-25 compared to the previous academic year. Smaller declines have also been reported in regions including the North East, the South West, and Yorkshire and the Humber.

Each empty primary school place incurs a loss of around £5,000 in per-pupil funding, significantly pressuring school budgets and their ability to cover essential overheads. The IfG report highlights that the education system’s slow adjustment to the falling pupil numbers is exacerbating financial strains, as funds remain locked in underutilised classrooms. Amber Dellar, author of the report, emphasises that government ambitions to improve schools are undermined by budgets that do not fully support these goals, with financial resources increasingly stretched due to the surplus capacity.

Parallel to these challenges is a growing crisis in the special educational needs and disabilities (SEND) sector. The IfG warns that two-thirds of state special schools are operating beyond capacity, compounding financial difficulties as the government faces rising demand without a clear reform plan. Ms Dellar pointed to the acute strain this situation places on the education budget and called for a more strategic approach to managing SEND provision.

Government responses acknowledge these issues: a Department for Education spokesperson stated that the government inherited a SEND system described as “on its knees,” with thousands of families struggling to access appropriate support. They affirmed ongoing efforts to engage families through extensive listening sessions and pledged ministerial leadership in efforts to deliver better outcomes for children and parents alike.

Supporting statistical data from the Department for Education confirms these patterns of school capacity and pupil numbers for 2023-24, along with forecasts for future years, highlighting planned changes to school places in line with population trends. Application data for primary and secondary schools further illustrate the impact of demographic shifts, showing a general decline in applications associated with the decreased birth rate from late 2016 onward.

Regionally, some positive developments accompany these trends. For instance, London Councils reports that despite fewer applications, down 2.2 percent due to falling birth rates and migration, the vast majority of children starting primary school in London in 2024 still secured a place at one of their preferred schools, with 89 percent placed in their first-choice institution, improving on the previous year. Similarly, in Oxfordshire, over 93 percent of applicants were awarded their first school choice for the 2023-24 academic year, suggesting that, where population declines permit, the school admissions process is providing satisfactory outcomes for families.

Ultimately, the current landscape of school capacity in England presents complex challenges shaped by demographic shifts, regional housing affordability, and the pressures of SEND provision. While the government expresses commitment to addressing these issues, the balance between maintaining educational standards and managing financial constraints remains delicate, with the evolving demand for school places requiring careful, forward-looking planning and responsive policy measures.

📌 Reference Map:

• ^[1] (Daily Mail) – Paragraphs 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9
• ^[2] (Department for Education official statistics) – Paragraphs 7, 8
• ^[3] (Department for Education detailed datasets) – Paragraphs 7, 8
• ^[4] (Department for Education application statistics) – Paragraph 8
• ^[5] (London Councils) – Paragraph 9
• ^[6] (Oxfordshire County Council) – Paragraph 9

Source: Noah Wire Services

Noah Fact Check Pro

The draft above was created using the information available at the time the story first
emerged. We’ve since applied our fact-checking process to the final narrative, based on the criteria listed
below. The results are intended to help you assess the credibility of the piece and highlight any areas that may
warrant further investigation.

Freshness check

Score:
8

Notes:
The narrative references a report by the Institute for Government (IfG) on unfilled primary school places in England for the 2023-24 academic year. The IfG’s report was published on 27 March 2025, which is recent and relevant. The Daily Mail article was published on 7 November 2025, indicating timely reporting. However, similar reports on declining primary school pupil numbers and unfilled places have been published by other sources, such as the Department for Education and local councils, in the past year. This suggests that while the specific data may be new, the broader issue has been previously reported. Additionally, the narrative includes updated data but recycles older material, which may justify a higher freshness score but should still be flagged. ([gov.uk](https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/school-capacity-in-england-academic-year-2023-to-2024?utm_source=openai))

Quotes check

Score:
9

Notes:
The narrative includes direct quotes from Amber Dellar, author of the IfG report, and a Department for Education spokesperson. A search for the earliest known usage of these quotes indicates that they originate from the IfG’s report and the Department for Education’s official statements. No identical quotes appear in earlier material, suggesting that the quotes are original to this report. This supports the originality of the content.

Source reliability

Score:
7

Notes:
The narrative originates from the Daily Mail, a reputable UK newspaper. However, the Daily Mail has faced criticism for sensationalism and inaccuracies in the past. The IfG is a respected think tank, and the Department for Education is a government department, both of which are reliable sources. The inclusion of quotes from these sources adds credibility to the narrative.

Plausability check

Score:
8

Notes:
The narrative presents data on unfilled primary school places in England, attributing the surge to a falling birth rate following a decade-long baby boom. This claim aligns with official statistics from the Department for Education, which report a significant number of unfilled primary school places in the 2023-24 academic year. The narrative also discusses regional variations, such as the 8.1% drop in pupil numbers in London since 2018-19, which is consistent with data from local councils. The financial implications, including the loss of around £5,000 per unfilled place, are plausible and reflect the funding structure of UK schools. The narrative’s tone and language are consistent with typical reporting on educational issues in the UK.

Overall assessment

Verdict (FAIL, OPEN, PASS): PASS

Confidence (LOW, MEDIUM, HIGH): HIGH

Summary:
The narrative presents timely and original content, supported by credible sources and consistent with official statistics. While similar issues have been reported previously, the specific data and quotes in this report are new and relevant. The plausibility of the claims is high, and the narrative’s tone and language are appropriate for the topic.